Econometric model on revenue generation in Nigeria using stepwise regression

Revenue generation in Nigeria is vital for sustaining economic growth and development, especially given the country’s dependency on oil revenues. Despite being endowed with abundant natural resources, Nigeria faces fiscal challenges such as over-reliance on oil revenue, weak tax compliance, and administrative inefficiencies. This research is to generate an econometric model with respect to revenue drivers. Secondary data were obtained using datasets from 2015 to 2023 from the National Bureau of Statistics. Stepwise (forward) regression was utilized to identify significant predictors of revenue generation, including variables like: inflation rate, foreign direct investment, taxes, oil revenue, exchange rate and gross domestic products. The analysis was conducted at a 5% significance level and (’10,000,000,000) unit of measurement. Multicollinearity was tested using VIF, excluding variables with high collinearity. Findings revealed that oil revenue is the most impactful variable, reflecting its dominance in Nigeria’s revenue structure followed by non-oil revenue (taxes), then exchange rate and GDP. The final model equation is: Tot Rev = 5.414 + 3.186 (OR) + 0.595 (Taxes) + 0.415 (EXR) + 0.286 (GDP). Variables like inflation rate and foreign direct investment were excluded due to insignificant contributions, indicating redundancy in predicting revenue. It is concluded that the importance of diversifying Nigeria’s revenue sources, particularly through enhanced non-oil revenue collection is portrayed. Improve tax compliance through digital platforms and taxpayer education, invest more in sectors like agriculture, ICT, and manufacturing, etc; to reduce reliance on oil revenues.